Search results for "at risk"
showing 10 items of 61 documents
Comment on “A simple way to incorporate uncertainty and risk into forest harvest scheduling”
2017
In a recent research article, Robinson et al. (2016) described a method of estimating uncertainty of harvesting outcomes by analyzing the historical yield to the associated prediction for a large number of harvest operations. We agree with this analysis, and consider it a useful tool to integrate estimates of uncertainty into the optimization process. The authors attempt to manage the risk using two different methods, based on deterministic integer linear programming. The first method focused on maximizing the 10th quantile of the distribution of predicted volume subject to area constraint, while the second method focused on minimizing the variation of total quantity of volume harvested sub…
Guidelines for risk management in forest planning – what is risk and when is risk management useful?
2018
Managing forest resources occurs under various sources of uncertainty. Depending on the management problem, this uncertainty may have a substantial impact on the quality of the solution. As our knowledge on the sources and magnitude of uncertainty improves, integrating this knowledge into the development of management plans becomes increasingly useful, as additional information can improve the decision-making process. This adjustment requires a fundamental shift in how planning problems are viewed: instead of interpreting risk management as a technique needed only for addressing problems with natural hazards, risk management should be an integral part of most planning problems. Managing ri…
Time at risk: Individual spatial behaviour drives effectiveness of marine protected areas and fitness
2021
11 pages, 6 figures, 1 table.-- Under a Creative Commons license
Data-Based Forest Management with Uncertainties and Multiple Objectives
2016
In this paper, we present an approach of employing multiobjective optimization to support decision making in forest management planning. The planning is based on data representing so-called stands, each consisting of homogeneous parts of the forest, and simulations of how the trees grow in the stands under different treatment options. Forest planning concerns future decisions to be made that include uncertainty. We employ as objective functions both the expected values of incomes and biodiversity as well as the value at risk for both of these objectives. In addition, we minimize the risk level for both the income value and the biodiversity value. There is a tradeoff between the expected val…
Comparative analysis of abundance–occupancy relationships for species at risk at both broad taxonomic and spatial scales
2015
The abundance–occupancy relationship is one of the most well-examined relationships in ecology. At the species level, a positive association has been widely documented. However, until recently, research on the nature of this relationship at broad taxonomic and spatial scales has been limited. Here, we perform a comparative analysis of 12 taxonomic groups across a large spatial scale (Canada), using data on Canadian species at risk: amphibians, arthropods, birds, freshwater fishes, lichens, marine fishes, marine mammals, molluscs, mosses, reptiles, terrestrial mammals, and vascular plants. We find a significantly positive relationship in all taxonomic groups with the exception of freshwater…
Integrating risk management tools for regional forest planning: an interactive multiobjective value-at-risk approach
2018
In this paper, we present an approach employing multiobjective optimization to support decision making in forest management planning under risk. The primary objectives are biodiversity and timber cash flow, evaluated from two perspectives: the expected value and the value-at-risk (VaR). In addition, the risk level for both the timber cash flow and biodiversity values are included as objectives. With our approach, we highlight the trade-off between the expected value and the VaR, as well as between the VaRs of the two objectives of interest. We employ an interactive method in which a decision maker iteratively provides preference information to find the most preferred management plan and le…
Exposure-Based Cash-Flow-At-Risk for Value-Creating Risk Management Under Macroeconomic Uncertainty
2010
A strategically minded CFO will realize that strategic corporate risk management is about finding the right balance between risk prevention and proactive value generation. Efficient risk and performance management requires adequate assessment of risk and risk exposures on the one hand and performance on the other. Properly designed, a risk measure should provide information on to what extend the firm's performance is at risk, what is causing that risk, the relative importance of non-value-adding and value-adding risk, and the possibilities to use risk management to reduce total risk. In this chapter, we present an approach – exposure-based cash-flow-at-risk – to calculating a firm's downsid…
Incorporating stand level risk management options into forest decision support systems
2018
Aim of study: To examine methods of incorporating risk and uncertainty to stand level forest decisions. Area of study: A case study examines a small forest holding from Jonkoping, Sweden. Material and methods: We incorporate empirically estimated uncertainty into the simulation through a Monte Carlo approach when simulating the forest stands for the next 100 years. For the iterations of the Monte Carlo approach, errors were incorporated into the input data which was simulated according to the Heureka decision support system. Both the Value at Risk and the Conditional Value at Risk of the net present value are evaluated for each simulated stand. Main results: Visual representation of the er…
On the Consistent Use of VaR in Portfolio Performance Evaluation: A Cautionary Note
2010
The portfolio performance measures based on the Value at Risk (VaR) concept have gained widespread popularity and are often used in empirical studies. In the majority of empirical studies, however, a VaR-based performance measure is inconsistently used. In this article, Zakamouline emphasizes how to consistently use VaR in portfolio performance evaluation. He also elaborates on a simple framework that allows the derivation of a general formula for a portfolio performance measure that is not limited to the use of VaR-based reward and risk measures, but is valid for all reward and risk measures that satisfy a few plausible properties.
Women and Repayment in Microfinance: A Global Analysis
2011
NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in World Development. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in World Development, 39(5), 758-772 http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2010.10.008 This paper uses a global data set of 350 microfinance institutions (MFIs) in 70 countries to study the common belief that women are generally better credit risks in microfinance than men. The r…